I suspect that Henry Paulson expected investment banks to keep doing what they were doing before they got the Fed money (lending money indiscriminately against inadequate reserves), and they decided instead to shore up their books and make sure they had the reserves for their current book, figuring that some day, possibly soon, there’d be an accounting. As a result, the bailout did not have the desired effect.

They now claim that their efforts are directed thusly: “Mr. Paulson said Washington will also try to directly increase the amount of loans available to students, car buyers and credit-card users, and possibly homeowners threatened by foreclosures as well.”

OK, but when more money is made available for students to spend on college tuition, tuition simply goes up (look down the page a little for the appropriate bit). As for car buyers, people either can’t take on more debt or simply do not *want* a new car right now. Stopping foreclosures *might* keep home prices up, but is that what we really want? Won’t that prevent first-time homebuyers from jumping in to the market just when fresh money is needed? Furthermore, I heard a piece on TV (no link, sorry) that 40% of people offered mortgage work-outs in lieu of foreclosure don’t want them. Either they can’t afford *any* mortgage, don’t want to live in their now failing neighborhood any longer, can’t maintain such a big house or have simply decided that the whole thing was a huge mistake. 40%! You can’t *make* people stay committed to their mortgage if don’t want it, and you certainly can’t make them start on a new one.

I heard more today on CNBC regarding credit card use. The retail numbers came in ugly (worst since 1992, blah blah blah), and some of these retailers have pointed out that credit card use has actually dropped more than sales. This seems to indicate that people don’t want more debt. After the media hammering at economic doom for most of this year, they have apparently gotten the message and are saving for a rainy day, or at least saving that bit of remaining credit limit for Christmas gifts. So, Paulson can lead a horse to water, but he can’t make it drink. Big shock there.

The way to fix the markets is to let them fix themselves. Excesses must be worked out. Banks and companies that can’t make money need to be allowed to fail, yes, even GM. GM wouldn’t just disappear — the assets would be sold off to people who might see their way clear to using a factory to make a car that consumers actually want to buy. Handing GM a vast pile of taxpayer money is just going to perpetuate more of their stupid, unworkable ideas. Furthermore, I don’t know if anyone at GM has noticed, but gas costs about 1/2 what it did a couple of months ago. This doesn’t encourage people to take a bath on something that guzzles gas to lay out money on a new something smaller that uses less.

Regarding a Detroit bail-out, Megan McArdle sums it up well here:

What bothers me is twofold. First, after the unions have put companies into an untenable position, they come to the rest of us looking for a handout to continue the unsustainable levels of pay and benefits. Almost everyone I know makes less than an autoworker, and has a whole lot less job security. Why should they pay autoworkers for the privilege of making cars no one wants?

(my emphasis) The whole article is worth a read.

I got off on a bit of a tangent there, but I just can’t figure out why it’s the government’s place to eliminate the business cycle. The trillions of dollars of taxpayer money (and new national debt) are only serving to confuse the markets. Traders find it all uncertain and unknowable as the government could pop up anywhere and mess up their bet. This means they don’t really want to get back in and chase a moving target. Regular investors are going to continue to sit on cash instead of “picking up bargains”, as the TV bubble-blowers like to say because they don’t believe they’ve seen a bottom. Certainly, the volatility index seems to indicate that the wild gyrations will continue a bit longer.

I find it hard to believe the bear market is over. First, we’ve only got the leading edge of the bad set of economic numbers coming our way. Second, the market contrarians have always said that a bear market is not over until no one is talking about buying any stocks. They must be completely repudiated as an investment to come back from the bottom. I think they’ve got that right, and I’m just not seeing it yet.

Ultimately, what the government and the Fed are trying to do is prevent deflation. This is the famedhelicopter money. of story and song. Oil’s price has crashed to nearly half what it was just a couple of months ago. Agricultural commodities have followed. Gold is doing really poorly — something that makes no sense considering the continual debasement of the dollar. Sure looks like deflation to me, but only time will tell. If they do manage to kick off inflation or worse, hyperinflation, what comes after that? A deflationary collapse.

To my way of thinking, treating markets like something that can be controlled is utter folly. They are a force of nature. Mucking with them in a half-assed way will only make the inevitable disaster that much worse. And yes, anything government is doing is half-assed. A couple of trillion dollars is a lot of money, but it’s nothing compared to the global derivatives market.

I wonder if Bush and Paulson cooked this thing up thinking that either a) it would work or b) it would fail, but so spectacularly that no one would ever try this bit of nonsense again.

My AA skirt is black, not blue, but this one is a bit easier to make out in the photo. I made the new version out of a dark chocolate leather that’s about 1.5-2oz. weight (this translates just less than 1mm in thickness). This brown is very dark and looks black until you put it next to something black. This leather pretty easy to sew on my machine, provided I use teflon covered feet. Without teflon, it’s just hellish as the material won’t feed correctly through the machine. I have worked with leather enough that I also have a teflon covered zipper foot, something that’s very useful. If you’re thinking of combining leather + zipper, get one.

People claim you can sew up to a 3oz. leather on a home sewing machine, but I find this nearly impossible as it’s *much* too thick to top stitch seams, and curves become a real challenge. Also, you can’t cross over another seam, like you would for the crotch seam in pants or the underarm seam on a top with set sleeves.

The right needle is also important, of course. I used a Schmetz leather needle, size 90/14. I always use that brand and always have, and they work well for me. I have a range from 90-110, but the 90 is generally best for my projects. Leather needles wear out faster as they are actually punching through every stitch, so if stitches are skipping, toss it and use a new one.

I’ll get a photo of my version up soon, but it’s really dark in here today due to the rain, and the flash will look yuck, so…we wait for sunlight.

The original skirt was only three pieces (and a perfect fit), so it was very easy to copy from the AA Denim version. This is not the first commercial garment I’ve used to make a pattern. I think it’s easy, but I’ve been sewing for nearly 30 years, so maybe I’m glossing over things, I don’t know. I have picked very simple garments to copy — generally because the fit is absolutely perfect. The commercial copy of a pattern that I use all the time is from a pair of Gap capri pants. They are stretch, though I have made them out of non-stretch as well by adding seam allowance. No darts, so this is quite easy. Really, the pattern is all about how it exactly copies the curve of my hip and my ginormous thighs.

Anyway, for the skirt. I laid it out very flat with the front and back seams to the sides. Since this has no side seams, the two pieces to the skirt are exactly the same size — another thing that made this eas. I then used tailor’s chalk (you need something like charcoal or conte — something soft) on slightly transparent paper (in my case, wax paper) to mark the outlines and the waistband height and seam. I then removed the skirt and trued up all the lines and corners with a pencil and ruler. I then added 5/8″ to the top, front and back seams. I added 3/4″ for the hem (the original had a rolled hem of 3/8″ inch, I wound up with a straight hem since leather never frays).

For the waistband, I did the same, but this did not work out quite right. As a result, I wound up cutting a third waistband piece and having seams where darts or princess seams would go in the front. The top stitching makes this kind of a design element. The waistband was now too long, of course, but after I attached it, I cut it down. It’s much much easier to have too long a waistband than too short!

I used a standard polyester/plastic zipper — the original was metal. I wound up with two snaps, one on either side of the zipper. The original had one, straight above the zipper.

The final product came out quite well. The original in denim is stiff and sticks out at the sides, and the leather hangs more or less exactly the same way. It’s currently on my dress form so that the glue in the waistband can dry. Yes, there’s Fabri-Tac involved. I top stitched all the seams in this garment, except that I could not stitch-in-the-ditch to finish the waistband as it was too much thickness, so it’s sewed at the top to make the fold-over, and then glued on top of the seam allowance to keep it permanently in place. I have also glued seams flat/open with this stuff when I did not want to top stitch or when it wasn’t practical, say for inside the seam on pant legs. It’s essential to working with leather, I think.

I have another project going on as well. I have made a muslin of Simplicity 3165 from 1959(ish):

I’m using View 4 with the long sleeves from View 2, and I have made the turtleneck part a *lot* shorter in height. I brought the neckline down a teeny bit, maybe 3/8″ at the center and not at the back at all. I made the front darts bigger and moved them outward because the bust points didn’t match mine. I also re-curved the waist and made it smaller. All told, I probably took 4″ out of the waist. I’ve already disassembled the muslin, so I can’t take a picture of that.

I will be making that awesome hood, probably out of wool, but not necessarily for wearing with View 4.

In this short 4.3 miles I was really grateful for my map. There were many junctions with woods roads and trails and the foliage seemed to conspire to grow over blazes making it hard to find the trail. In this, the map really helped.

I had a wonderful break in a high meadow before I headed to the road. The descent was rugged and rocky including some fine trail work of rock stairs. My shuttler was on time and a very nice guy and we had a great deli lunch on the way back to Sheffield. My car was, of course, right where I left it but was now unbelievably dirty.

Just like the drive here, I made great time going home, though the GPS sent me via a completely different route.

The day was sunny and pleasant, but the climb up the creek was buggy. I inhaled a bug, actually. I *hate* when that happens, and luckily, that is not often. I noted that ahead of me was a bad weather by-pass. I certainly wasn’t taking it as the weather was delightful. Usually, these are for very exposed areas that might be risky if there’s lightning. This was not that — it was a vertical boulder field! It was interesting and fun, and I really enjoyed the challenge. What I did not enjoy was trying to figure out where the trail, the boulder field and the by-pass all came together at the top. I walked/climbed around up there for a good long time looking for the northbound AT. I think I actually finished the rock climb the hard way and missed the last blaze. Anyway, on I went. That was by far the most interesting part of the day.

In pretty short order I reached the Vermont Line and the start of The Long Trail. I had now completed Massachusetts.

I crossed a couple of ponds, but no where I wanted to get water. This would eventually become a problem. All the streams appeared to be pond overflow. That just didn’t seem like something I wanted to drink. Towards the end of the day, I traveled next to a big noisy creek. At this point, it was getting dark and I was really wondering where on earth the shelter was. This is a pretty common experience for me though, so I wasn’t actually worried. Eventually, I was hiking in a stony, shallower version of the creek. Yikes.

When I finally made it to the shelter, there was a big friendly group there, all southbounders. One group had been there all day (Razor and two really nice guys from Kentucky: Lt. Dan and … damn it, I can’t remember) and had explored there area and gathered a LOT of firewood. There was a lot of companionship and a huge bonfire. I enjoyed all of this as much as the peaceful night alone at Mark Noepel — the opposite experience.

Tomorrow, I would hike down to VT9 to catch my ride.

As I mentioned in the previous entry, my digital camera battery had given up the ghost at some point and I couldn’t get panoramas or movies from Mt. Greylock. I got a couple of images with my iPhone. This one was taken from Mt. Greylock:

I watched a couple of little planes land from here — this is the view from Mt. Prospect. I walked past the airport on the way into town.

North Adams was actually closer than Williamstown, but it had fewer options all together and no where to sleep. When I chose to do the longer road walk west, I thought that if I had any energy that night, maybe I’d take a cab in to the town proper and have a beer or something. HA! After showering and eating a pile of Kung Pao Chicken, I don’t think I moved from the bed until the next day.

Breakfast (Duff & Dell’s) the next day was very good, so the whole laundry experience seemed a little easier. Laundry was a one mile walk each way to and from the hotel, but it was all flat, and the weather was nice, if too windy. I got a sub at Angelina’s and left town with it to eat on my way to Cheshire.

It seemed like a looong walk on streets to get out of town. I’m sure it wasn’t more than a mile, but for some reason, walking in town seems farther. I climbed the first mountain, ate half the sub and moved on. Before descending into Cheshire, there’s a great view at the Cobbles. I ate the rest of lunch there, though it was really windy.

In Cheshire, I picked up and sorted my maildrop. The weather was fantastic, and there was a bench at the Cheese Monument, right across from the P.O. After sending back some odds and ends, I went to Diane’s Twist to get an ice cream before beginning the climb out of town. From this point on, I did not see any other hikers until I got to the top of Mt. Greylock the next morning.

I headed out of Cheshire in the latter part of the afternoon and had a few of those moments in the woods where it seemed a lot later than it was. The walk across farm fields and roads was pretty easy and scenic. The climb up to Mark Noepel was not too bad either. Finally, the trail was not mostly mud. I was just starting to think I’d missed the shelter and worry about the growing dark and my lack of water when the trail appeared. Off I went down to the shelter.

There was no one but me there. I got water, and no one appeared. I set up my hammock near the tent platform and still no one appeared. I threw the bear rope and ate dinner at the picnic table near the shelter. Inside was an unmolested Lipton indicating that there were neither bears nor mice about.

I took a little movie at this point. Either my camera battery didn’t give me a warning at this point or I failed to notice it, but it didn’t work after this.

I enjoyed my tea as the sun went down and the sky turned a beautiful pink. I heard two separate flocks of geese honking and saw them fly over with the fluffy pink clouds in the background. It was a really idyllic moment there, and the first time I’d been alone at an AT shelter in…I don’t know how long actually.

I was still alone in the morning after a very comfortable and quiet night. Time to walk up Greylock the rest of the way. I took this one with the iPhone.

By the lunch time, taken at October Mt. Lean-to, the sun had come out.

At about 5pm, I crossed a road and started climbing Day Mountain. I had to have water here, so I stopped. This was a very tight valley, and it was already kind of dark, but then some fog blew in. I had a hard time figuring out where I was supposed to access the AT up Day Mtn. On the profile, it looked bad at the end of the day, but I thought it was really easy. It helped that I was made nervous by darkness, and once I got up to the top, I could see that it was still kind of light out. After that was the town descent, which seemed was pretty short but it was dark over there too — lots of tree cover, so the rock hopping was rough.

The owner was at the desk when I got there (7:30pm on a Sunday), and the pub was open until 8:30 (the ONLY close place to get food, other than a gas station).

After showering and changing, I went over to the pub. I was tired, and the lighting was weird in there. I was also very hungry, so the lighting mattered less that it otherwise might have. The food was not good, and I also picked a locally brewed beer that I didn’t like. After bed, the pub/offices sounded like they were moving elephants over there, but since they closed up early on account of it being Sunday, this was OK too. The bed was firm, but the TV remote didn’t work, and batteries didn’t solve the problem (I was carrying the right ones, I would not have bothered to buy them!).

Today was warm and muggy with lots of mud, rocks and roots. I feel like I rock hopped for 15 miles, trying to stay out of the deep mud. Often, there’s evidence of someone else going ankle deep in the mire, so you can often see where the deep parts are. Other times, it looks firm and you step in and…yuck. I don’t really mind getting wet or having wet feet (though days of it generally causes blisters because it softens the skin so much), but when I took my shoes off, my feet were black from the mud.

The think about rock hopping is that sometimes, it seems to not be worth it. You’re doing the extra work to keep your feet out of the mud, but taking the risk of winding up on your ass in the mud, something that did happen to me this day.

When I got to UGPC, I immediately went for a swim. The pond was definitely cold, but not extremely so. I was a lot cleaner and the cold water is great for the muscles and feet after the long work out. Looking at my clothes, it occurred to me that putting them on in the morning would really, really suck. I hung them in the bunkhouse hoping for mostly dry clothes.

I’ve learned that generally, when I think my clothes are as wet as they can get, I’m wrong. You learn this when you decide that rinsing them out is a good idea, only to find them a clammy horror in the morning.

The cabin itself has a terrific porch facing the pond, though you can’t see much of it from there. In the bunkhouse, people were paranoid about getting wet from blowing rain, so all the bunks near the windows (which were just screens) were empty. Awesome — that’s where I’d want to be anyway. I had my tarp handy, and I figured that if rain blew in, I’d throw it over me.

I was pretty wiped out, so I put off taking pictures until morning. This was not a good plan, as in the morning, the rain was just pissing down. The caretaker had an Irish Wolfhound (cream colored, not grey), who was pretty awesome. She also had a smaller dog that looked like some kind of whippet cross. There were the legendary endless pancakes in the morning, and that was nice, especially with the idea that we’d have to trudge off into the rain, first completing the .5 mile trail BACK to the AT, but without butter…not as tempting as I’d thought.

I met several SOBO thruhikers, Boulder, Plank, Detour (I think) and Caveman. There were other long distance hikers completing a big section to finish their through: Second Chance and DC Turtle. They were hiking with a former thru, Late Start. I also met someone from Whiteblaze here, Wysteria and her two hiking companions…and I didn’t write down their names.

I was planning to get to Dalton on the 14th which is 20 miles, so I really didn’t hang around much in the morning.

The hike starts out next to the Housatonic and uses some local roads before climbing.

This shelter is actually two shelters, one old and one new. It was pouring down rain when I arrived there, and no one could find the water source — everyone was backtracking down the AT. I eventually found it in the morning, and then I realized that I *would* have found it the day before, but I could not hear it running. It just looked like a puddle in the near dark, but the next day, I could hear the water running underground.

I elected to stay at the new shelter, not pitching the hammock because of the rain. When I arrived, there were two dads and four boys (age 10-16, roughly) wearing jeans and sweatshirts. Apparently they had changed because they were not wet. One of the dads informed me that they were “mail technicians” (postmen, I assume). I said that perhaps their boys valued sleep less than I did, and I asked if I’d be happier in the other shelter. They said the boys would be in their sleeping bags by 7:30 or 8pm, and I took them at their word. They were exactly right. I’ve never camped around boys that age who were so quiet. They got up really early (6-6:30, I think), but I have no problem with that. I was actually a little too warm in the shelter, but there were no bugs due to the pouring rain. By morning, it was just foggy.

In the older shelter, there was an older woman who I talked to much more the next day. She took one look at the boys and decided to stay in the older shelter, at that point, on her own. Another guy came in after dark, a southbound section hiker, and by the time he came to the newer shelter asking where the heck the water was, everyone was asleep except me. I explained that yes, supposedly it was here, but that we couldn’t find it.

I got going by about 8:00am, which is pretty good for me. Again, the boys were thwarted in their desire for a campfire.

I ran into Lynn (the woman at the other shelter) later on, and we both stopped and ate something at Finerty Pond and then moved on to Upper Goose Pond Shelter.

While I’m aware this is pretty much an electronic chain letter, I do enjoy many blogs, and am willing to indulge in some harmless linktastic madness.

With that out there, here are seven of my favorite blogs, in no particular order:

The QC Report,
Rachel Lucas,
A Dress a Day,
Just Bento,
Chronically Uncool,
Sew Retro, and
Miss Celie’s Pants

I also enjoy Tino’s blog, but I don’t read it every day because he doesn’t post enough (hint, hint). Also, I’m pretty sure he would think this mutual-admiration-society thing is silly, and I already link to him anyway.

If you want to put the logo on your blog, please do these things:

1) Add the logo of the award to your blog
2) Add a link to the person who awarded it to you
3) Nominate at least 7 other blogs
4) Add links to those blogs on your blog
5) Leave a message for your nominees on their blogs